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丹江口水库作为南水北调中线工程核心水源地，其水质安全关乎北方超1亿人口的供水保障。尽管库区水质长期稳定达标，但汛期因污染引发的“旱季蓄积、雨季释放”现象已成为制约水质持续改善的关键瓶颈。本研究以2023年十堰市丹江口库区14个水质断面为对象，系统量化了降水对CODMn、NH3-N、TP污染强度的影响机制。通过Pearson相关分析与线性回归模型，揭示了以下创新性结论：(1)污染物浓度峰值滞后降雨1～2 d，短时强降雨对氮磷负荷的冲刷效应具有快速累积性；(2)降水量与CODMn、NH3-N、TP、NTU均呈强正相关(r>0.65)和高度显著性(p<0.01),TP敏感性最高；(3)TP与NH3-N对降水的敏感性显著高于其他污染物，且二者呈现强共线性(r=0.90)，表明农业面源污染是主要驱动因素；(4)极端降雨(>40 mm)导致水质数据离散度增加2～3倍，凸显非线性污染输入特征。本研究提出基于污染滞后响应的动态预警阈值，为库区汛期面源污染精准管控提供了科学依据。
Abstract：As the core water source of the Middle Route Project of the South-to-North Water Diversion, the water quality of the Danjiangkou Reservoir is crucial for ensuring water supply to over 100 million people in northern China. Although the water quality in the reservoir area has met the standard stably for a long time, the phenomenon of “accumulation in the dry season and release in the rainy season” caused by non-point source pollution during the flood season has become a key bottleneck for the continuous improvement of water quality. This study selceted 14 water quality sections in the Danjiangkou Reservoir area of Shiyan City in2023 as the research object and systematically quantified the impact mechanism of precipitation on the pollution intensity of CODMn, NH3-N, and TP. Through Pearson correlation analysis and linear regression models, the following innovative conclusions were revealed:(1) The peak values of pollutant concentrations lag behind rainfall by 1-2 d, and the scouring effect of short-term heavy rainfall on nitrogen and phosphorus loads has a rapid cumulative effect.(2) Precipitation shows strong positivc corrclations(r>0.65) and high significance(p<0.01) with CODMn, NH3-N, TP, and NTU, the correlation was highly significant(p< 0.01) and TP was the most sensitive.(3) The sensitivity of TP and NH3-N to precipitation is significantly higher than that of other pollutants, and they showed a strong collinearity(r = 0.90), indicating that agricultural non-point source pollution is the main driving factor.(4) Extreme rainfall(>40 mm) lcads to a 2—3 fold increase in the dispersion of water quality data, highlighting the characteristics of nonlinear pollution input. This study proposed a dynamic early-warning threshold based on the lagged response of pollution, providing a scientific basis for the precise control of non-point source pollution in the reservoir area during the flood season.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.19478/j.cnki.2096-2347.2026.01.02
中图分类号:P426.6;X52
引用信息:
[1]杨玺,王筝,李哲.降水对河流水质影响以及污染强度分析——以2023年十堰市丹江口库区降水为例[J].三峡生态环境监测,2026,11(01):10-22.DOI:10.19478/j.cnki.2096-2347.2026.01.02.
2025-05-13
2025-05-13
2025-05-13